Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat
Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat
The vice president is polling better than Biden was before he dropped out, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.
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True story: half the country doesn't even know she's in yet.
Had to tell 3 peeps at dinner yesterday what's up.
I'm not alone.I get how there are people who don't follow politics, but man... how do you avoid news like this?
I mean, technically, she's not in until the convention... but you would think it would be common knowledge unless you're a recluse or a child who doesn't know most people by name.
Someone more famous than I (Meryl Streep?) once suggested that upon graduation, one should be mandated to drive a taxi for a year, just to see what it's "really like" out there.
You'll have to take my word for it, she's so right.People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that'll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened...and, yet....
I just worked customer service for a decade. After awile you just take it in stride when an adult is functionally illiterate. Leaving aside the people who think Democrat and Republican have to do with the dictionary definitions of Democracy and Republic and nothing else.
People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that'll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened...and, yet....
...yet they find that one thread on Nextdoor where one person claimed that it happened in their child's classroom and a lot of self-righteous pearl clutching. Therefore, that must be the truth.
I think we are all in literal Hell. That's the only explanation that makes sense that other people are so clueless. We are all dead and in Hell; they are actors put here to torment us.
I get how there are people who don't follow politics, but man... how do you avoid news like this?
In my experience, with so much option offered by the Internet, an individual could easily curate the type of information they're consuming and exclude others.
I'm aware of targeted ads and algorithm having some influence, but overall the internet still offers better freedom of choice than TV, radio and newspaper would have offered. But the problem with this is people curating only what they want to see and making their own personal informational bubble. Seeing what people only want to see, especially ones that comfort them. That's why too many people are unaware on certain things.
That requires effort, the TV tells people what to think and that is easy.
That does kind of explain a lot.
I know we're all in our own occasionally overlapping echo chambers, but the betting odds and prediction markets still tend to favor Trump, some of the larger ones pretty heavily. It's very disconnected from the narrative I've been seeing about Kamala here and elsewhere, I hope that narrative is right, but still doesn't line up.
Why do I keep seeing people putting stock in "betting markets"? ... Somehow professional gamblers became respected replacements for polls some and I do not get it
It's real easy to make polls go whichever way you like if you try and it may be in someones best interest to make sure only the 'correct' polls are widely known. We're spoiled in that we've been able to expect the organizations involved to be trustworthy and not do that, but I think a lot of us feel that that's been less and less true.
For the betting markets, their success relies almost solely on them predicting odds correctly and consistently. Our respect here is for the people who dedicate their lives to making sure the gamblers lose. Could obviously still be manipulated, but in this case doing so is at least contrary to the purpose of the organization instead of in the previous case potentially actually supporting it...
Not going to lie though, is a weird shift, I get it.
I never said that polls were accurate. And I get the reasoning, sort of. I just don't understand why anyone would think that this actually adds any legitimacy or accuracy:
Our respect here is for the people who dedicate their lives to making sure the gamblers lose.
If it were so good of an indicator, then why wouldn't anyone betting on sports check what the "market" says, bet and win big all the time? Most people lose these bets, otherwise it wouldn't make sense to bet on things to begin with.
I feel like you're confusing the people who make the bets with the people who make the odds, those are interconnected obviously and react to each other, but it's two separate parties.
I think the justification is that people will be more honest/rational when betting their own money.
It's probably less irrational than stock markets, since there's a very clear time horizon people are betting on, and data like polls can be pretty good. But since they're looking at essentially the same data as pundits, it's unsurprising they tend to do about as well.
We're a week into Kamala's candidacy. Things are going to change around very quickly.
For now, this is a promising sign, but it doesn't mean Trump is done. There's still a long way to go until November.
2 weeks, and she's erased polling deficits!
#maga is drooling in fear through their "tooths", like Pavlov's dog, bc they're hearing the Ding! Ding! Ding! from the electorate.
Who cares what some sweaty terminally online gambling addicts think? Or do you treat the concept of markets as a religion?
So they didn't know "she's in" but did they know Biden dropped out?
"Who?"
-- them
They don't know who Biden is?
sorry,
"/s"
... You started off with a supposed true story that you want people to believe, but somewhere it turned to sarcasm. I'm not sure what to believe anymore.
The true story is that people, except the reader, you, and I, are fucking ignorant, illiterate, and stupid.
That applies to my first statement, my reply to you, and the subsequent replies.
How? I’ll bet half the world knows, and probably most of them don’t want to
A whole lot of people are actively avoiding political news.
Some because they hate the vitrol, and a whole lot who are voting for Trump and don't want to face what that means.
Ask them!
You're surrounded!Depends on which side of the asylum wall is inside and which is outside
We're painfully aware. Please get everyone who's eligible to go vote, we can't, but are still affected.
How anyone in the US doesn't know is beyond me. Hell, you'd have to not go outside, and not go online. Which you'd imagine to be fairly rare.