There's a user on /r/NCD with a theory that Lukashenko is actually pretty clever and cunning and he just plays the fool and I was pretty convinced.

This might be it.

It was /u/Cook_0612:

I've been saying Lukashenko is smart from the start. His buffoon act is just that: an act. This is a guy that's managed to work with the conditions he started with pretty masterfully considering his own political objectives from his first days in power.

Not a lot of people know this, but at one point Lukashenko was an anti-corruption crusader and a potential Russian President, but when it became clear that those things weren't going to work out he shifted tone and became Putin's courtier. And in that role, he's managed to maintain both power in Belarus and Belarussian autonomy (as much as could be realistically obtained without military separation from Russia) for the entire time he's been in control.

Whenever he needed something from Moscow, he'd talk about Russification and joining Russia before eventually making some kind of excuse or mistake. When Putin overstepped, he was not afraid to arrest his agents and reemphasize Belarussian identity. When his power was threatened by his own Maidan, he got Putin to put it down, and in return all he had to do was host the Russians' invasion, not actually take part. Oh, and let's not forget the whole, 'I "accidentally" reveal all the Russian axes of advance' picture. Lukashenko probably considered the invasion moronic from the start, and just like Kazakhstan he's not exactly hurt by Russians getting fed into a meatgrinder and losing influence.

The biggest danger to him right now would be Belarussian veterans from Ukraine metastasizing into the core of a new movement against him, and if he wants to survive that he's not going to throw troops into Ukraine for Putin.

The comments about him getting good trade deals and economic concessions I think I got from other commenters. There's a lot of people that know about this.

So basically he just points out that Lukashenko in the past has wanted to unite moscovia and Belarus and become ruler over that union. When the powers in moscow put putin in power he was disappointed, but he still wants to rule the both of them. Putin also wants to unite the 2 and Luka has been dangling the possibility of them becoming one state to get putin/moscovia to support him and grant Belarus concessions and good deals on stuff. I don't remember all the details but I think he said one of the things Belarus gets is either hydrocarbons or some other natural resource for below market rates and Belarus has been taking advantage of that by reselling it at market prices.

However, since Luka keeps dangling the possibility of a union they get away with it. He's getting way more out of moscovia than they are getting out of Belarus, meanwhile Luka just bides his time and uses moscovia to help keep him in power.