UK general election: find your new constituency – and see how it would have voted in 2019
UK general election: find your new constituency – and see how it would have voted in 2019
Boundary changes mean the 2024 British general election will be fought in altered seats. Enter your postcode to see a map of your constituency and how these seats would have voted in 2019
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The Labour vote share in my already Labour stronghold has increased? What the fuck? This isn't how it's supposed to work. I was told this was an evil plan by the Tories and the Electoral Commission. FFS!
Jokes aside, my constituency has and always will be Labour by some margin. This has increased it at the expense of Green and LidDem votes. Interestingly the Tory share has also increased but not by as much as Labour.
What is the word for Gerrymandering when it benefits / costs all parties uniformly in the same way according to well understood population statistics?
That's exactly what gerrymandering looks like, though - group all the labour votes into one weirdly shaped constituency and leave the other 10 in the area solid blue.
The Labour vote share in my already Labour stronghold has increased? What the fuck? This isn’t how it’s supposed to work. I was told this was an evil plan by the Tories and the Electoral Commission. FFS!
I am not making any comment on how disreputable these changes are but what you're seeing is exactly what you'd expect if the Tories were trying to load the dice. Gerrymandering can't disappear votes. It has to pack as many opposition votes as possible into as few constituencies as possible, leaving narrow wins for the gerrymanderer in all the remaining ones.
They analysis shows that, were the last election fought on the new constituency boundaries, the Conservative majority would be 14 seats larger. It also reveals that the swing to Labour required for the party to achieve an overall majority increases by 0.7 percentage points from 12.0 to 12.7.
So this is less representative. However, you'd be hard pushed to find anything that really looks like clear gerrymandering.