The office real estate crash will be so sharp and deep that Capital Economics thinks office values are unlikely to recover by 2040
The office real estate crash will be so sharp and deep that Capital Economics thinks office values are unlikely to recover by 2040
The research firm’s top property economist likens the decline in office demand to what malls have experienced over the last six years—and sees a similar outcome.
The research firm’s top property economist likens the decline in office demand to what malls have experienced over the last six years—and sees a similar outcome.
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There is a captive market for residential real estate, and a glut of commercial properties...
Everyone MUST live in a home while offices and other commercial spaces are a "nice to have" - so the businesses and individuals with extra capital have gobbled up the residential property to further push us into the "own nothing and be happy" economy.
I like the idea of transforming the old commercial properties to condos, but there's a ton of issues with retrofitting - which is the result of zoning and differences in building codes. Then there's the zoning issues themselves.
So.. as usual.. we are beholden to politicians doing the right thing for their constituents, and not their donors. These commercial properties are going to sit idle, and decay until it becomes a "true" crisis (buildings collapsing, mass squatting causing major health and safety issues) - causing untold costs to fix them to accrue in the meantime.
It'll never happen, but my grandiose solution is to deliberately crash the housing market via legislation limiting ownership of single family homes. This would boost the "velocity" of cash (lowering inflation), allows taxpayers to own (solves housing crisis), and would renew interest in the commerical real estate.
Mass squatting. Hmm. That's an interesting idea. I wonder if local governments will turn a blind eye, sort.of how they did in Brooklyn warehouses that rented out space to artists (which the artists used as live work spaces, unofficially).
Some of these offices are extremely small and don't have bathrooms (there was an article in Curbed IIRC about psychiatrist offices that were empty because most patients are now doing Zoom sessions). But they would make good SROs (they just need to retrofit the bathrooms to have showers). They are about the size of a studio.
Some countries have actually legalized squatting in certain situations (like if a building is long term empty) to put some fire under the landlord’s ass to either find a paying tenant or sell. And honestly I think it’s an inelegant but effective solution.
It’s not productive to have real estate units sitting empty in the middle of the city and we simply shouldn’t allow it.
I worked for an engineering company that had "secret" projects. So when you were assigned to a secret project, you'd move all your desk stuff into that project area where everyone coming and going had to enter a security code to get through the door. But the size of projects would vary over the weeks. I remember one Friday I finished my work on a secret project along with several other people in the desks and drafting tables near me. The next Monday, we found that our desks were in the same place, but they'd moved the wall; so we were outside the project area - or actually we had been absorbed into a different project area with a different door code. So in those big buildings, there may be small offices, but they are easily reconfigured.
I wonder if squatting in high-rise office space might give rise to sort of communal life - something more social than single-family units of today. It will be an interesting social experiment
Just wanted to chime in and say that ive been seeing a lot of great comments, often great stories, from you and wanted to thank you! I love them!
In my family, if a kid (such as myself, for example) tended to talk a lot, they'd say "he was vaccinated with a Victrola needle" (because, for the younger readers who are possibly ignorant of history, vaccines were originally applied by scratching the skin surface with a needle, and a Victrola was an early record player with an actual needle for converting the grooves into vibrations - so perhaps some of the capacity for endless automatic patter carried over with the vaccination)
One of the first places I lived when I moved out of my parents house was a converted hotel in a really old part of Los Angeles. My studio unit had a bathroom, but no kitchen. I lived off of microwave Trader Joe’s meals and stuff I could cook on a foreman grill. Cheaper units were basically just bedrooms that shared communal restrooms. We may be seeing more of this setup in the future.
I think it's less likely they'll turn a blind eye these days. Oakland was similar but there was a massive crackdown on artists wherehouse spaces after the GhostShip fire (36 people lost their lives) .
Would love to see the ones that could be easily retrofitted into housing go that way and the ones that can’t go to another purpose like farming.