I think they're right - this is a ticking time bomb and even if the mortgage market comes under control in the next few months, rate are going to be high all the way through to the next election in Autumn/Winter 2024.
An economy under pressure, with people having to sell their homes in a depressed property market or worse families having their homes repossessed - I can't see the tories coming back form this.
They're hoping that but it's looking increasingly unachievable. In particular the time bomb is people who fixed at 1-2% but next year they'll be facing deals new deals next year that are looking like 5-6% at a minimum barring a rapid cooling of inflation.
But yeah, it's not impossible they can benefit from an improvement in the economy and slashing taxes. I just don't see it working personally even if they can get into a position to do it.