Bulletins and News Discussion from August 14th to August 20th, 2023 - America's War On Pipelines
Thread image created by yours truly, depicting Iran and Pakistan very impolitely not asking whether America, on the other side of the planet, is okay with them transporting gas around.
The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has long been obstructed by American involvement in the region. Iran completed its section of the pipeline quite quickly, but Pakistan has been unable to finish its construction for a decade due to the fear of falling afoul of American sanctions on Iran. The United States has repeatedly tried to pressure Pakistan to give up the project and obtain gas from other countries instead. Recent articles on the state of the pipeline are contradictory, with some stating that Iran or Pakistan have given up on the pipeline while American sanctions persist. Pakistani officials reject this framing, saying that they are still working with Iran to try and get the project completed somehow. Nonetheless, Iran is becoming increasingly frustrated and is threatening a legal battle and a demand for reparations.
Meanwhile, back in Niger, the $13 billion under-construction pipeline connecting Nigeria and other West African countries to Spain and Italy will likely face delays due to the sanctions applied by the West and ECOWAS on Niger. Those following the European gas fiasco will be aware that while Spain and Italy have been impacted by the energy crisis, they have been very busy making deals with African countries to replace their Russian gas, and thus stand a better chance than Germany of making it through the crisis with their industries somewhat intact. The coup has thrown a wrench into their plans, though they can still obtain some gas from northern African countries.
And, last but not least, America tried for years to stop the construction of the Nord Stream pipelines between Germany and Russia, which culminated in them deciding to blow them up late last year.
All in all - the United States really does not like it when countries build up energy infrastructure and gain some independence from them.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
South Korea's defense exports came to $17.3 billion last year, almost a six-fold increase from $3 billion in 2020.
South Korea's export of tanks and other armored vehicles to Poland stood at $255 million in the first four months of this year. It already exceeded all of last year's exports of $201 million of the said items.
According to sources, Tuesday, Poland reportedly requested more than 20 trillion won ($15.6 billion) in financial support from Korea for the terms of their second defense contract.
Countries ordering large-scale projects often request financial loans to cover insufficient funds, which makes the scale of financial support key to the finalization of contracts. However, due to the limited support capacity of Korean ECAs, this year's negotiations are encountering difficulties.
In 2022 Poland made an order for 1000 K2 tanks, 600 K9A1 self-propelled howitzers, 280 K239 multiple rocket launchers, and 48 FA-50 light combat planes. A portion would be produced in South Korea and delivered over the next 2 years, after that the rest is planned to be built in Poland through a licensing deal.
The article reiterates that the first credit/loan request from Poland was for PLN 36.8 billion ($9.2 billion) and the second one for PLN 62.5 billion ($15.6 billion). Neither administration publicly disclosed these numbers and details about the first loan only came out as a byproduct of a discussion in South Korean parliament. South Korean banks have hit a local credit/loan limit for financing arms sales this year due to the large order and are asking the government to increase it.
Shoigu added that Poland has become the main tool of America’s anti-Russian policy. "The existing risks are connected with the militarization of Poland, which has become the main instrument of the anti-Russian policy of the United States. Warsaw has announced its intention to build, as the Poles claim, 'the most powerful army on the continent.' In this connection, large-scale purchases of weapons from the US, the UK and South Korea have commenced, including tanks, artillery systems, air defense and anti-aircraft systems and combat aircraft," the top defense official pointed out.
This seems like big numbers but versus the Russian army? plus with the Western shortages of ammunition and shells and patriots and missiles and such? and bad NATO training? my griftometer is blaring tbh
It's endlessly fascinating to me that just as the generation that remembers WW2 is dying of old age, policymakers in so many countries are forgetting that one of the major factors in the Allies' victory was the rapid mass production and delivery of "good enough" equipment.
If we look at it in a vaccum, they're buying mostly offensive gear and issuing aggressive statements left and right so I can see how it can look dangerous if interpreted seriously, but this is the Polish government we're talking about so indeed it could just be about money for private interests through local defense contracts. Military flexing and being loud is one thing but actually getting involved in war would be politically unpopular. The total military spend will apparently be around PLN 400-500 billion ($100-120 billion) at the first stage but I don't have a formal source for that. I do find it funny they maxed out the South Korean loan limit though lol.
There are some US hawks writing pieces advocating for a non-NATO European 'coalition of the willing' but I guess that's nothing new, remember how the Bush Jr admin had all these plans for Eastern Euorpe.
Some of the criticism from centrists/socdems/alt-right libertarians is the government hasn't replaced their arms fast enough after giving them to Ukraine (this is also somehow considered an anti-war stance there lol), and also that they should pick less fights with other European allies but officially everyone in government is onboard for these purchases from what I've seen, criticizing the management of but not the decision itself.