What if bikes had been invented earlier?
What if bikes had been invented earlier?
Why do alt-history people never focus on infrastructure or innovation? What would have happened had bikes been invented centuries before cars instead of around the same time? How different would the built environment and our culture have looked?
Personally, I think centuries of more established bike use would have created an infrastructure that limits how well cars take off. Cities would have entrenched themselves in a cheap, dense manner of transit.
I could be wrong, lots of dense cities were wrecked by the car when it was commercialized. I'd love to hear any thoughts :)
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Bikes need a level of precision manufacturing that means cars and airplanes are just around the corner no matter what alternative history you come up with. If you sent a modern machinist back to 10BC they could maybe make a bike by hand (if they are lucky enough to get a rich sponsor - making a Gingery style lathe by hand is something a modern machinist would be able to figure out it takes a lot of time an materials that are were not cheap), but the cost would be such that the only people who could afford it already have slaves to carry them everywhere. There might be demand for a handful as a novelty for their young sons (sexist world, girls need not apply) but it will soon disappear as those slaves are cheaper than the bike. (it takes a lot of slaves to mine and refine the ore needed to make the bike)
That's a great point, I didn't consider the tech tree that leads to bikes also makes cars more likely :/
In 10BC, it would likely be all wood - frame, wheels, crankset, everything - and be driven by a notched leather belt on toothed wooden sprockets.
I am thinking this:
That would help, but I'm not sure you can make wood and leather belt drive train work well. And without rubber wheels you won't be happy with the ride. Though I guess as a novelty for rich kids who have slaves it would work well enough.
Interesting concept. Not sure it'd last too long though.
Have you ever seen wooden/ bamboo bikes? Renovo was one manufacturer. And currently, (https://www.lightwoodenbicycles.com/) TimberWolf Cycles.
There are others: https://www.treehugger.com/awesome-bikes-made-of-wood-4869156
I saw one in a museum, from the 1880s, made of hickory. It reportedly weighed 18 pounds.
Most of them the frame is wood, but the gears, chain, spokes, brake cables, steering, cranks... are all metal. There are a few all wood bikes, but wood doesn't work well for some applications (it is great for the frame) and so I'd expect the all wood bikes to wear out fast.
One more requirement for cars in addition to the precision manufacturing is a mobile source of energy like the ICE.
Now I'm wondering if an alternative history with industries revolution powered just by water would be possible (once there is steam engine/turbine, internal combustion engine/turbine is just a matter of time).
There was a brief window where ICE cars, electric cars, and steam cars existed simultaneously and all sucked just about equally
Other than the mobile need that same source of energy is needed to turn ore into metal. Refining ore as they did in BC days used a lot of energy - mines were located near forests (ore was more common then the forests and you needed a lot more wood than ore!). Modern refining uses a lot less energy on a per output basis. (It uses a lot more energy now, but produces orders of magnitude more output)
This is essentially what I was wondering about – was it possible to evolve metallurgy with a different principal energy source and charcoal or coal used "only" for redox reactions?
Thinking about it, it would be necessary to discover electric power before industrial revolution in a geography with a product of precipitation and elevation drop like e.g. Norway or Costa Rica have (and this would have to be "normal" geography, not exceptional).
You can make things more efficient, but there is a reason many factories melting metal work third shift only, and close the factory for maintenance in December - the power company gives them a big discount for using the cheapest power. Even if you get 10x more efficient (which implies you are an expert in these processes - there are only a handful in the world) , that really isn't enough to jump start manufacturing.
Don't forget too that modern life is only possible because a large population means we can specialize a lot. The number of different experts to really make a difference is larger than you would guess: someone to refine iron, but they need someone to create electric, which needs an [steam] engine, which in turns needs a metal alloy expert (not the same as the first person though there is overlap). We are now in a circle as you can't do any step without some other step. It took a long time to bootstrap the process.
If you went back to anytime after 1680 with modern knowledge you could bootstrap a lot of things faster - but that only is possible because the industrial revolution is already starting and so you can make a large strive in one area and it will help others who are already working in some other - both by creating demand for what they are producing and also by creating better inputs to what they are doing. Without lots of other parts of the industrial revolution happening at the same time there just isn't enough parts in play for you to do anything alone.