we have had the first wave - and its gone well. second wave is incomming on or about the 30th - probably smaller, but no less committed (long term). after that its a war of attrition.
Yeah I think they're underestimating how many people just won't use the official app. The people who use Apollo, RiF, Relay, etc. are pretty attached.
I know for me reddit is just the app on my phone that I press when I'm bored now. I figured when the app doesn't work anymore I'll just find entertainment elsewhere, which is how I found the fediverse. Now that I'm here the whole concept of decentralized interconnected communities has totally sold me on the project.
The problem with reddit, Twitter, twitch, etc. as I see it is that they're all just trying to profit off their users somehow. That's not conducive to fostering healthy communities of people. I think this whole thing is the future of social networking, take the big corps out of the equation.
unrelated to your comment (sorta), but I just saw your comment update in real time after you edited it. I just thought that's a really cool feature and wanted to point it out :)