Apple just proved AI "reasoning" models like Claude, DeepSeek-R1, and o3-mini don't actually reason at all. They just memorize patterns really well.
Apple just proved AI "reasoning" models like Claude, DeepSeek-R1, and o3-mini don't actually reason at all. They just memorize patterns really well.
LOOK MAA I AM ON FRONT PAGE
You're viewing a single thread.
Just fancy Markov chains with the ability to link bigger and bigger token sets. It can only ever kick off processing as a response and can never initiate any line of reasoning. This, along with the fact that its working set of data can never be updated moment-to-moment, means that it would be a physical impossibility for any LLM to achieve any real "reasoning" processes.
I can envision a system where an LLM becomes one part of a reasoning AI, acting as a kind of fuzzy "dataset" that a proper neural network incorporates and reasons with, and the LLM could be kept real-time updated (sort of) with MCP servers that incorporate anything new it learns.
But I don't think we're anywhere near there yet.
The only reason we're not there yet is memory limitations.
Eventually some company will come out with AI hardware that lets you link up a petabyte of ultra fast memory to chips that contain a million parallel matrix math processors. Then we'll have an entirely new problem: AI that trains itself incorrectly too quickly.
Just you watch: The next big breakthrough in AI tech will come around 2032-2035 (when the hardware is available) and everyone will be bitching that "chain reasoning" (or whatever the term turns out to be) isn't as smart as everyone thinks it is.
LLMs (at least in their current form) are proper neural networks.
Well, technically, yes. You're right. But they're a specific, narrow type of neural network, while I was thinking of the broader class and more traditional applications, like data analysis. I should have been more specific.
Unlike Markov models, modern LLMs use transformers that attend to full contexts, enabling them to simulate structured, multi-step reasoning (albeit imperfectly). While they don’t initiate reasoning like humans, they can generate and refine internal chains of thought when prompted, and emerging frameworks (like ReAct or Toolformer) allow them to update working memory via external tools. Reasoning is limited, but not physically impossible, it’s evolving beyond simple pattern-matching toward more dynamic and compositional processing.
Reasoning is limited
Most people wouldn't call zero of something 'limited'.
The paper doesn’t say LLMs can’t reason, it shows that their reasoning abilities are limited and collapse under increasing complexity or novel structure.
I agree with the author.
If these models were truly "reasoning," they should get better with more compute and clearer instructions.
The fact that they only work up to a certain point despite increased resources is proof that they are just pattern matching, not reasoning.
Performance eventually collapses due to architectural constraints, this mirrors cognitive overload in humans: reasoning isn’t just about adding compute, it requires mechanisms like abstraction, recursion, and memory. The models’ collapse doesn’t prove “only pattern matching”, it highlights that today’s models simulate reasoning in narrow bands, but lack the structure to scale it reliably. That is a limitation of implementation, not a disproof of emergent reasoning.
Performance collapses because luck runs out. Bigger destruction of the planet won't fix that.
Brother you better hope it does because even if emissions dropped to 0 tonight the planet wouldnt stop warming and it wouldn't stop what's coming for us.
If emissions dropped to 0 tonight, we would be substantially better off than if we maintain our current trajectory. Doomerism helps nobody.
It’s not doomerism it’s just realistic. Deluding yourself won’t change that.
If the situation gets dire, it's likely that the weather will be manipulated. Countries would then have to be convinced not to use this for military purposes.
This isn’t a thing.
The paper doesn’t say LLMs can’t reason
Authors gotta get paid. This article is full of pseudo-scientific jargon.
previous input goes in. Completely static, prebuilt model processes it and comes up with a probability distribution.
There is no "unlike markov chains". They are markov chains. Ones with a long context (a markov chain also kakes use of all the context provided to it, so I don't know what you're on about there). LLMs are just a (very) lossy compression scheme for the state transition table. Computed once, applied blindly to any context fed in.
LLMs are not Markov chains, even extended ones. A Markov model, by definition, relies on a fixed-order history and treats transitions as independent of deeper structure. LLMs use transformer attention mechanisms that dynamically weigh relationships between all tokens in the input—not just recent ones. This enables global context modeling, hierarchical structure, and even emergent behaviors like in-context learning. Markov models can't reweight context dynamically or condition on abstract token relationships.
The idea that LLMs are "computed once" and then applied blindly ignores the fact that LLMs adapt their behavior based on input. They don’t change weights during inference, true—but they do adapt responses through soft prompting, chain-of-thought reasoning, or even emulated state machines via tokens alone. That’s a powerful form of contextual plasticity, not blind table lookup.
Calling them “lossy compressors of state transition tables” misses the fact that the “table” they’re compressing is not fixed—it’s context-sensitive and computed in real time using self-attention over high-dimensional embeddings. That’s not how Markov chains work, even with large windows.
their input is the context window. Markov chains also use their whole context window. Llms are a novel implementation that can work with much longer contexts, but as soon as something slides out of its window, it's forgotten. just like any other markov chain. They don't adapt. You add their token to the context, slide the oldest one out and then you have a different context, on which you run the same thing again. A normal markov chain will also give you a different outuut if you give it a different context. Their biggest weakness is that they don't and can't adapt. You are confusing the encoding of the context with the model itself. Just to see how static the model is, try setting temperature to 0, and giving it the same context. i.e. only try to predict one token with the exact same context each time. As soon as you try to predict a 2nd token, you've just changed the input and ran the thing again. It's not adapting, you asked it something different, so it came up with a different answer
While both Markov models and LLMs forget information outside their window, that’s where the similarity ends. A Markov model relies on fixed transition probabilities and treats the past as a chain of discrete states. An LLM evaluates every token in relation to every other using learned, high-dimensional attention patterns that shift dynamically based on meaning, position, and structure.
Changing one word in the input can shift the model’s output dramatically by altering how attention layers interpret relationships across the entire sequence. It’s a fundamentally richer computation that captures syntax, semantics, and even task intent, which a Markov chain cannot model regardless of how much context it sees.
an llm also works on fixed transition probabilities. All the training is done during the generation of the weights, which are the compressed state transition table. After that, it's just a regular old markov chain. I don't know why you seem so fixated on getting different output if you provide different input (as I said, each token generated is a separate independent invocation of the llm with a different input). That is true of most computer programs.
It's just an implementation detail. The markov chains we are used to has a very short context, due to combinatorial explosion when generating the state transition table. With llms, we can use a much much longer context. Put that context in, it runs through the completely immutable model, and out comes a probability distribution. Any calculations done during the calculation of this probability distribution is then discarded, the chosen token added to the context, and the program is run again with zero prior knowledge of any reasoning about the token it just generated. It's a seperate execution with absolutely nothing shared between them, so there can't be any "adapting" going on
Because transformer architecture is not equivalent to a probabilistic lookup. A Markov chain assigns probabilities based on a fixed-order state transition, without regard to deeper structure or token relationships. An LLM processes the full context through many layers of non-linear functions and attention heads, each layer dynamically weighting how each token influences every other token.
Although weights do not change during inference, the behavior of the model is not fixed in the way a Markov chain’s state table is. The same model can respond differently to very similar prompts, not just because the inputs differ, but because the model interprets structure, syntax, and intent in ways that are contextually dependent. That is not just longer context-it is fundamentally more expressive computation.
The process is stateless across calls, yes, but it is not blind. All relevant information lives inside the prompt, and the model uses the attention mechanism to extract meaning from relationships across the sequence. Each new input changes the internal representation, so the output reflects contextual reasoning, not a static response to a matching pattern. Markov chains cannot replicate this kind of behavior no matter how many states they include.
an llm works the same way! Once it's trained,none of what you said applies anymore. The same model can respond differently with the same inputs specifically because after the llm does its job, sometimes we intentionally don't pick the most likely token, but choose a different one instead. RANDOMLY. Set the temperature to 0 and it will always reply with the same answer. And llms also have a fixed order state transition. Just because you only typed one word doesn't mean that that token is not preceded by n-1 null tokens. The llm always receives the same number of tokens. It cannot work with an arbitrary number of tokens.
all relevant information "remains in the prompt" only until it slides out of the context window, just like any markov chain.
Your conflating surface-level architectural limits with core functional behaviour. Yes, an LLM is deterministic at temperature 0 and produces the same output for the same input, but that does not make it equivalent to a Markov chain. A Markov chain defines transitions based on fixed-order memory and static probabilities. An LLM generates output by applying a series of matrix multiplications, activations, and attention-weighted context aggregations across multiple layers, where the representation of each token is conditioned on the entire input sequence, not just on recent tokens.
While the model has a maximum token limit, it does not receive a fixed-length input filled with nulls. It processes variable-length input sequences up to the context limit, and attention masks control which positions are used. These are not hardcoded state transitions; they are dynamically computed weightings over continuous embeddings, where meaning arises from the interaction of tokens, not from simple position or order alone.
Saying that output diversity is just randomness misunderstands why random sampling exists: to explore the rich distribution the model has learned from data, not to fake intelligence. The depth of its output space comes from how it models relationships, hierarchies, syntax, and semantics through training. Markov chains do not do any of this. They map sequences to likely next symbols without modeling internal structure. An LLM’s output reflects high-dimensional reasoning over the prompt. That behavior cannot be reduced to fixed transition logic.
the probabilities are also fixed after training. You seem to be conflating running the llm with different input to the model somehow adapting. The new context goes into the same fixed model. And yes, it can be reduced to fixed transition logic, you just need to have all possible token combinations in the table. This is obviously intractable due to space issues, so we came up with a lossy compression scheme for it. The table itself is learned once, then it's fixed. The training goes into generating a huge markov chain. Just because the table is learned from data, doesn't change what it actually is.
I'm not convinced that humans don't reason in a similar fashion. When I'm asked to produce pointless bullshit at work my brain puts in a similar level of reasoning to an LLM.
Think about "normal" programming: An experienced developer (that's self-trained on dozens of enterprise code bases) doesn't have to think much at all about 90% of what they're coding. It's all bog standard bullshit so they end up copying and pasting from previous work, Stack Overflow, etc because it's nothing special.
The remaining 10% is "the hard stuff". They have to read documentation, search the Internet, and then—after all that effort to avoid having to think—they sigh and start actually start thinking in order to program the thing they need.
LLMs go through similar motions behind the scenes! Probably because they were created by software developers but they still fail at that last 90%: The stuff that requires actual thinking.
Eventually someone is going to figure out how to auto-generate LoRAs based on test cases combined with trial and error that then get used by the AI model to improve itself and that is when people are going to be like, "Oh shit! Maybe AGI really is imminent!" But again, they'll be wrong.
AGI won't happen until AI models get good at retraining themselves with something better than basic reinforcement learning. In order for that to happen you need the working memory of the model to be nearly as big as the hardware that was used to train it. That, and loads and loads of spare matrix math processors ready to go for handing that retraining.