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We've been through this before.
When Windows dropped most 32 bit support, desktop Linux had a chance just like this, but it didn't happen then either. Unless some distro becomes a perfect 1:1 replacement for Windows on all hardware, with no changes in installation procedure. (including when it's purchased) as well as: All software must run not only perfectly, but exactly the same, with everything from installation to every moment of use exactly the same, otherwise people will use Windows unpatched, or go out and buy new hardware.
In my opinion, the year of Linux on the desktop will only come when the desktop is abandoned, and it is no longer a commonly used platform.
Yes, it's bleak, but we've been down this road before. Unless a distro becomes perfect, no significant change will come.
Scoop up that hardware being discarded, install your favorite distro (because you will be supporting it) and give it away to someone to learn Linux. There will never be a mass exodus, just install, educate, and chip away 1 user at a time.
Even if there was a perfect drop in replacement it wouldn't change anything. People bitch and moan about windows all of the time but the reason they use it is bc that's what came with their laptop.
Reinstalling a new OS is the biggest problem, people will learn how to do things but they won't go out of their way to do it.
Given this explanation, I am amazed I was able to use an iPad after having an android tablet. I had to pick new apps! Relearn the settings! In a different hardware!
I'm honestly proud of myself. Thanks.