Its -quite fucking literally- because I use data to form my opinions. When the data disagrees with my opinion, I do this crazy fucking thing, where I change my opinion.
Its called "living in fact based world". Look it up.
These are just "national polls". Its not a new analysis. I run thousands of these kinds of analyses every month. Check my post on Bidens probability of winning. Check my post structural bias in polling. I'm sorry reality isn't what you want it to be, but that very much is a "you" problem.
Also, I shared the code with you. You can do your own work on it. Come up with an argument based on the data that validates or invalidates your thesis.
I called Biden dropping out literally 8 months before it happened, and basically to the week. Some asshole here still owes me $200 (I think they deleted their account over it). I called Kamala being the nom. I also thought it she was a great candidate, and she blew past my expectations for performance. I also called a decline/ stagnation in her polling if she didn't come out strongly on the issue of Israel Gaza.
Its literally all written into my post and comment history, just there, for any one to see.