cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/45881324

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Japan’s diplomatic corps has been on edge since Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, made a social-media post criticizing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and referring to "stupid politicians" and the need to “chop off their dirty heads.” But as shocking as China’s wolf-warrior diplomacy and belligerent social media posts are, they’re not the only unsettling activity carried out by Chinese diplomats in Japan.

For years now, and with increasing frequency, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) consulates in Japan have been openly conducting a series of gray-zone activities that likely violate international law, strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s “United Front” network in Japan and bolster its political mobilization capabilities for future operations.

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When one thinks of China’s “gray-zone activities,” one generally thinks of paramilitary, law-enforcement or military coercion on sea or land –– such as China Coast Guard and maritime militia harassment or PLA air incursions –– designed to intimidate or harass other nations or push the boundaries of the PRC’s influence. But gray-zone activities also come in the form of supposed diplomatic outreach that is actually designed to undermine democratic institutions or social cohesion within a target country.

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The Chinese Embassy in Japan and five of its consulates are involved in organizing these "one-day consulate" events, in which the operation venues include clubhouses, cultural centers, hotel meeting rooms and shopping streets.

The latest pop-up event took place in Sendai on Sept. 21, organized by the Chinese consulate general in Niigata as part of the 2025 Chinese Festival held at Sendai Sunmall Ichibancho. The consular services provided included passport renewal and travel documents. An upcoming operation, organized by the Chinese consulate general in Osaka, is scheduled for Monday in a hotel conference room at the Crown Palais New Hankyu in Kochi.

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These qualify as gray-zone activities on foreign soil for a number of reasons [...] Even if approval is granted, the events exceed the scope of consular services. Indeed, my reporting has uncovered evidence that these events serve as platforms for Chinese influence operations and political activities. The activities themselves represent an institutionalization and intensification of the PRC’s pre-existing extraterritorial law enforcement efforts — challenging international norms and rules-based order while advancing its own political and strategic agendas.

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These events are accompanied by Beijing’s extensive influence operations in social media, which attempt to shape the target audience's perception of China. As a concrete manifestation of what Communist Party leader Xi Jinping calls “people-centered diplomacy,” these events are ostensibly organized to "bring consulate services into the community.” Yet they are also designed to make attendees “feel the strength and the warmth of their motherland.”

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These pop-up consular events help amplify PRC propaganda both online and in-person, with both operations reinforcing each other. In the Chinese information space, PRC consulates general in Japan amplify their activities using narratives that frame Beijing as providing "caring" and "convenient services" to the target audience, which in turn bolsters nationalism.

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These irregular activities not only amplify Beijing's propaganda but may also serve as united front operations in peacetime to strengthen local networks, as most events are hosted with the support of local Chinese organizations. On the other hand, these events may also facilitate intelligence gathering and surveillance on former PRC residents in Japan as part of Beijing’s broader transnational anti-corruption, repression and repatriation campaign. In any case, these gray zone activities serve as the perfect mechanism to expand the united front network in Japan and advance Beijing's political mobilization capabilities for future operations.

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Amid the growing aggressiveness of the PRC, wolf-warrior diplomacy is no longer confined to provocative social-media posts. China is now — in Japan, the U.S. and elsewhere — actively organizing gray-zone operations that exploit the vulnerabilities of liberal democracies — threatening Japan’s social stability and national security. It’s high time that Japan recognize these domestic gray-zone operations and their ramifications and craft a pragmatic response.